HOW MLB SIM WORKS

MLB SIM uses the Pitcher DNA system (Gaussian Mixture Model clustering) to classify every pitcher into one of 26 archetypes (15 RHP + 11 LHP) based on their pitch mix, velocity, movement, and approach. Every batter has historical performance data against each archetype — because baseball is fundamentally a 1v1 sport, the specific pitcher a batter faces defines their expected performance.

When lineups are released, MLB SIM projects every batter's event rates based on how they've historically hit against the opposing pitcher's archetype. MOMO is the matchup output score from that pitcher-DNA projection, anchored to projected output with baseline talent and matchup swing as modifiers. MOMI is MOMO with a live momentum adjustment from consecutive streak, recent hit-game density, and last-7 form, because hitter game logs are not treated as independent coin flips.

MOMO — 1 TO 99

MOMO is Optimized Matchup Output. It is anchored by today's pitcher-DNA projected wOBA, then modified by the hitter's own baseline and the matchup swing. That means an elite hitter in a below-baseline matchup can be downgraded without being incorrectly treated like a zero-impact bat.

MOMI — 1 TO 99

MOMI is Optimized Momentum Impact. It starts with MOMO, then adjusts for active hitting streak length, recent hit-game density, and last-7 batting average. Consecutive streaks are signal, but so are interrupted hot patterns like 4 of the last 5 games with a hit.

PROJECTION METHODOLOGY

Team runs are projected using the BaseRuns formula, a context-neutral run estimator:

Batter projections use archetype-specific wOBA with head-to-head adjustments when sufficient plate appearance history exists.

BULLPEN PREDICTIONS

MLB SIM predicts bullpen deployment using three layers:

Layer 1 — Availability: Tracks reliever workload history to determine who CAN pitch.

Layer 2 — Usage Order: Estimates starter expected innings, then ranks available relievers by role hierarchy.

Layer 3 — Matchup Integration: For each predicted reliever, computes MOMO/MOMI against the lineup slots they'll likely face.