by Jack Morello
VECTOR MODEL
24-31
ROI
-9.9%
STREAK
W2
FILTER
C:8+ PRICE GATES · SINCE JUL 16
OLD MODEL · RETIRED
161-136-7 · -3.4% ROI · MAY 01–JUL 15
Go-Yard ↗
Time
Confidence
Run Diff
Leans
OCT 1 SLATE 1 GAMES
4.9
5.3
PHI
88-74
-105
WIN PROB
44.9% — 55.1%
O/U 10.2
NO PLAY
ATL
94-68
-114
Aaron Nola
Kitchen Sink
RHP
VS
Ray Kerr
Uncle Charlie
LHP
xwOBA PHI .318
ATL .299 PHI +.019
TIER T3_Standard (1.00×)
T3_Standard (1.00×)
MODEL BaseRuns+Vector xwOBA×Tier×BP×Park(1.03) → PHI 4.9 — ATL 5.3 | Pyth WP
VECTOR 45DPHI -0.1 / ATL -0.3vs T3_Standardvs T3_Standard
8:00 PM ET · Truist Park
KALSHITRADE NOW BETHOGBET NOW BOVADAJOIN NOW
LINEUP MATCHUPS ▼
PHI LINEUP
1 Trea Turner
SS 124PA +0.48 R MOMO55 MOMI70
WOBA.348 🧬 ARCH.293
2 Kyle Schwarber
DH 146PA +1.17 R MOMO99 MOMI97
WOBA.373 🧬 ARCH.452
3 Bryce Harper
1B 127PA +0.58 R MOMO55 MOMI67
WOBA.393 🧬 ARCH.296
4 Alec Bohm
3B 87PA +0.74 R MOMO87 MOMI87
WOBA.327 🧬 ARCH.396
5 Bryson Stott
2B 77PA +0.56 R MOMO61 MOMI81
WOBA.319 🧬 ARCH.315
6 Bryan De La Cruz
RF 20PA +0.37 R MOMO56 MOMI56
WOBA.31 🧬 ARCH.3
7 Edmundo Sosa
LF 68PA +0.85 R MOMO99 MOMI99
WOBA.325 🧬 ARCH.456
8 J.T. Realmuto
C 83PA +0.00 R MOMO31 MOMI26
WOBA.324 🧬 ARCH.132
9 Justin Crawford
CF 21PA +0.40 R MOMO53 MOMI65
WOBA.288 🧬 ARCH.286
ATL LINEUP
1 Drake Baldwin
C 128PA +0.82 R MOMO85 MOMI96
WOBA.355 🧬 ARCH.387
2 Ronald Acuña Jr.
RF 109PA +0.71 R MOMO75 MOMI76
WOBA.385 🧬 ARCH.359
3 Matt Olson
1B 146PA +0.67 R MOMO61 MOMI61
WOBA.367 🧬 ARCH.316
4 Michael Harris II
CF 140PA +0.51 R MOMO55 MOMI62
WOBA.333 🧬 ARCH.296
5 Mauricio Dubón
LF 118PA +0.36 R MOMO47 MOMI61
WOBA.307 🧬 ARCH.268
6 Mike Yastrzemski
LF 116PA +0.79 R MOMO86 MOMI86
WOBA.329 🧬 ARCH.393
7 Austin Riley
3B 132PA +0.34 R MOMO43 MOMI43
WOBA.329 🧬 ARCH.246
8 Ozzie Albies
2B 145PA +0.49 R MOMO53 MOMI53
WOBA.321 🧬 ARCH.287
9 Dominic Smith
DH 81PA +0.56 R MOMO68 MOMI68
WOBA.316 🧬 ARCH.339
Generated 2026-10-01 23:18 ET · Powered by ATLAS Pitcher DNA
HR BOARD
OCT 1 · 1 games with lineups
GO-YARD →
TOP BOARD
GO-YARD CARD
Highest-probability HR shortlist with projected HR%, batter HR baseline, pitcher-type lift, and lineup/run setup shown on every bat.
projected HR% power baseline matchup lift context
1
Kyle Schwarber
HR Profile
#2 PHI vs Ray Kerr (ATL) · team 4.9 · park 1.03x
Projected HR%, batter HR baseline, pitcher-type lift, and run setup all point up.
Projected HR%9.5%
0%15% elite scale
Power POW 5.7%
Lift LIFT +3.9pp
Context RUN +1.17
Batter HR% 5.7% own HR rate
Vs Pitcher Type +3.9pp today vs pitcher type
Lineup/Runs #2 / +1.17 R slot and run value
Park/Total 1.03x / 4.9 Park 1.03x
9.5%
Projected HR
2
Matt Olson
Hot Bat
#3 ATL vs Aaron Nola (PHI) · team 5.6 · park 1.03x
Recent hit density is adding support to the HR projection.
Projected HR%6.2%
0%15% elite scale
Power POW 5.7%
Lift LIFT +0.5pp
H2H H2H 5/48
Batter HR% 5.7% own HR rate
Vs Pitcher Type +0.5pp today vs pitcher type
Lineup/Runs #3 / +0.67 R slot and run value
Park/Total 1.03x / 5.6 H2H 5/48
6.2%
Projected HR
3
Mike Yastrzemski
Lineup Stack
#6 ATL vs Aaron Nola (PHI) · team 5.6 · park 1.03x
Multiple bats in this lineup are pressuring the same pitcher.
Projected HR%5.9%
0%15% elite scale
Power POW 3.9%
Lift LIFT +2.0pp
H2H H2H 1/22
Batter HR% 3.9% own HR rate
Vs Pitcher Type +2.0pp today vs pitcher type
Lineup/Runs #6 / +0.79 R slot and run value
Park/Total 1.03x / 5.6 H2H 1/22
5.9%
Projected HR
4
Ozzie Albies
Balanced Fit
#8 ATL vs Aaron Nola (PHI) · team 5.6 · park 1.03x
Projected HR%, pitcher type, and lineup setup all grade well.
Projected HR%4.8%
0%15% elite scale
Power POW 3.2%
Lift LIFT +1.6pp
H2H H2H 2/81
Batter HR% 3.2% own HR rate
Vs Pitcher Type +1.6pp today vs pitcher type
Lineup/Runs #8 / +0.49 R slot and run value
Park/Total 1.03x / 5.6 H2H 2/81
4.8%
Projected HR
5
Drake Baldwin
Hot Bat
#1 ATL vs Aaron Nola (PHI) · team 5.6 · park 1.03x
Recent hit density is adding support to the HR projection.
Projected HR%4.7%
0%15% elite scale
Power POW 5.0%
Lift LIFT -0.3pp
Context RUN +0.82
Batter HR% 5.0% own HR rate
Vs Pitcher Type -0.3pp today vs pitcher type
Lineup/Runs #1 / +0.82 R slot and run value
Park/Total 1.03x / 5.6 Park 1.03x
4.7%
Projected HR
6
Bryce Harper
Hot Bat
#3 PHI vs Ray Kerr (ATL) · team 4.9 · park 1.03x
Recent hit density is adding support to the HR projection.
Projected HR%4.6%
0%15% elite scale
Power POW 4.4%
Lift LIFT +0.1pp
Context RUN +0.58
Batter HR% 4.4% own HR rate
Vs Pitcher Type +0.1pp today vs pitcher type
Lineup/Runs #3 / +0.58 R slot and run value
Park/Total 1.03x / 4.9 Park 1.03x
4.6%
Projected HR
WATCH
GO-YARD WATCH
Secondary fits where the HR signal is live, with the same projected HR%, pitcher-type lift, and lineup/run readout.
6.5%+ HR power baseline matchup lift context
L1
Ronald Acuña Jr.
Balanced Fit
#2 ATL vs Aaron Nola (PHI) · team 5.6 · park 1.03x
Projected HR%, pitcher type, and lineup setup all grade well.
Projected HR%4.2%
0%15% elite scale
Power POW 5.0%
Lift LIFT -0.8pp
H2H H2H 4/68
Batter HR% 5.0% own HR rate
Vs Pitcher Type -0.8pp today vs pitcher type
Lineup/Runs #2 / +0.71 R slot and run value
Park/Total 1.03x / 5.6 H2H 4/68
4.2%
Projected HR
L2
Alec Bohm
Balanced Fit
#4 PHI vs Ray Kerr (ATL) · team 4.9 · park 1.03x
Projected HR%, pitcher type, and lineup setup all grade well.
Projected HR%4.0%
0%15% elite scale
Power POW 3.1%
Lift LIFT +0.9pp
Context RUN +0.74
Batter HR% 3.1% own HR rate
Vs Pitcher Type +0.9pp today vs pitcher type
Lineup/Runs #4 / +0.74 R slot and run value
Park/Total 1.03x / 4.9 Park 1.03x
4.0%
Projected HR
L3
Edmundo Sosa
Balanced Fit
#7 PHI vs Ray Kerr (ATL) · team 4.9 · park 1.03x
Projected HR%, pitcher type, and lineup setup all grade well.
Projected HR%3.6%
0%15% elite scale
Power POW 3.5%
Lift LIFT +0.1pp
Context RUN +0.85
Batter HR% 3.5% own HR rate
Vs Pitcher Type +0.1pp today vs pitcher type
Lineup/Runs #7 / +0.85 R slot and run value
Park/Total 1.03x / 4.9 Park 1.03x
3.6%
Projected HR
L4
Austin Riley
Balanced Fit
#7 ATL vs Aaron Nola (PHI) · team 5.6 · park 1.03x
Projected HR%, pitcher type, and lineup setup all grade well.
Projected HR%3.5%
0%15% elite scale
Power POW 4.3%
Lift LIFT -0.8pp
H2H H2H 7/68
Batter HR% 4.3% own HR rate
Vs Pitcher Type -0.8pp today vs pitcher type
Lineup/Runs #7 / +0.34 R slot and run value
Park/Total 1.03x / 5.6 H2H 7/68
3.5%
Projected HR
L5
Michael Harris II
Balanced Fit
#4 ATL vs Aaron Nola (PHI) · team 5.6 · park 1.03x
Projected HR%, pitcher type, and lineup setup all grade well.
Projected HR%3.3%
0%15% elite scale
Power POW 4.2%
Lift LIFT -0.9pp
H2H H2H 3/38
Batter HR% 4.2% own HR rate
Vs Pitcher Type -0.9pp today vs pitcher type
Lineup/Runs #4 / +0.51 R slot and run value
Park/Total 1.03x / 5.6 H2H 3/38
3.3%
Projected HR
BOARD
TODAY'S PICKS
Official moneyline board, separate from HR edges.
C:8+ board ROI price gates posted picks persist
MOMENTUM
HOT BATS
Recent timing plus matchup support.
5G+ streak or 4/5 hits MOMI 85+ MOMO 60+
NO HEAT QUALIFIERS
DATA
GO-YARD CARD TABLE
Only hitters on the visible Go-Yard or Watch cards appear here.
HR rate damage score surge power stack pressure park factor H2H
Card #StatusHitterPitcherLensHR%DamageBoostPressureParkTotalH2H
1 CARD Kyle SchwarberPHI · #2 Ray KerrATL HR Profile 9.5% 58 80 1.0 1.03x 4.9 0
2 CARD Matt OlsonATL · #3 Aaron NolaPHI Hot Bat 6.2% 35 72 5.1 1.03x 5.6 5/48
3 CARD Mike YastrzemskiATL · #6 Aaron NolaPHI Lineup Stack 5.9% 33 70 5.5 1.03x 5.6 1/22
4 CARD Ozzie AlbiesATL · #8 Aaron NolaPHI Balanced Fit 4.8% 25 63 8.0 1.03x 5.6 2/81
5 CARD Drake BaldwinATL · #1 Aaron NolaPHI Hot Bat 4.7% 30 78 7.1 1.03x 5.6 0
6 CARD Bryce HarperPHI · #3 Ray KerrATL Hot Bat 4.6% 26 62 8.2 1.03x 4.9 0
7 WATCH Ronald Acuña Jr.ATL · #2 Aaron NolaPHI Balanced Fit 4.2% 26 72 7.3 1.03x 5.6 4/68
8 WATCH Alec BohmPHI · #4 Ray KerrATL Balanced Fit 4.0% 24 64 8.4 1.03x 4.9 0
9 WATCH Edmundo SosaPHI · #7 Ray KerrATL Balanced Fit 3.6% 20 71 8.8 1.03x 4.9 0
10 WATCH Austin RileyATL · #7 Aaron NolaPHI Balanced Fit 3.5% 19 68 7.6 1.03x 5.6 7/68
11 WATCH Michael Harris IIATL · #4 Aaron NolaPHI Balanced Fit 3.3% 20 65 7.6 1.03x 5.6 3/38

HOW MLB SIM WORKS

MLB SIM uses the Pitcher DNA system (Gaussian Mixture Model clustering) to classify every pitcher into one of 26 archetypes (15 RHP + 11 LHP) based on their pitch mix, velocity, movement, and approach. Every batter has historical performance data against each archetype — because baseball is fundamentally a 1v1 sport, the specific pitcher a batter faces defines their expected performance.

When lineups are released, MLB SIM projects every batter's event rates based on how they've historically hit against the opposing pitcher's archetype. MOMO is the matchup output score from that pitcher-DNA projection, anchored to projected output with baseline talent and matchup swing as modifiers. MOMI is MOMO with a live momentum adjustment from consecutive streak, recent hit-game density, and last-7 form, because hitter game logs are not treated as independent coin flips.

MOMO — 1 TO 99

MOMO is Optimized Matchup Output. It is anchored by today's pitcher-DNA projected wOBA, then modified by the hitter's own baseline and the matchup swing. That means an elite hitter in a below-baseline matchup can be downgraded without being incorrectly treated like a zero-impact bat.

85-99Elite matchup — archetype strongly favors the hitter
70-84Plus matchup — strong pitcher-DNA output today
50-69Neutral to playable matchup output
1-49Tough matchup — weak projected output after baseline adjustment
MOMO FORMULA (matchup output): projected output score = pitcher-DNA wOBA mapped to 1-99 baseline talent score = season wOBA mapped to 1-99 matchup swing modifier = (pitcher-DNA wOBA - baseline wOBA) * 80 MOMO = 75% output score + 25% talent score + matchup modifier Example: baseline wOBA = .417 vs pitcher-DNA wOBA = .325 wOBA swing = -.092 MOMO = 64

MOMI — 1 TO 99

MOMI is Optimized Momentum Impact. It starts with MOMO, then adjusts for active hitting streak length, recent hit-game density, and last-7 batting average. Consecutive streaks are signal, but so are interrupted hot patterns like 4 of the last 5 games with a hit.

MOMI FORMULA (momentum impact): MOMI starts with MOMO + active-streak bonus when a streak exists + nonlinear 5+ / 10+ streak ramp + recent hit-game density bonus (4/5, 5/7, 7/10) + last-7 AVG strength modifier when a momentum signal exists no streak + no hit-density signal = MOMI remains MOMO Example: MOMO = 75 active/recent form = 4 of last 5 hit games last-7 AVG = .375 MOMI = 86

PROJECTION METHODOLOGY

Team runs are projected using the BaseRuns formula, a context-neutral run estimator:

A = H + BB - HR B = 1.02 × (1.4×TB - 0.6×H + 0.1×BB) C = PA - H - BB D = HR Runs = A×B / (B+C) + D Spread = Home Runs − Away Runs O/U Total = Home Runs + Away Runs

Batter projections use archetype-specific wOBA with head-to-head adjustments when sufficient plate appearance history exists.

BULLPEN PREDICTIONS

MLB SIM predicts bullpen deployment using three layers:

Layer 1 — Availability: Tracks reliever workload history to determine who CAN pitch.

Layer 2 — Usage Order: Estimates starter expected innings, then ranks available relievers by role hierarchy.

Layer 3 — Matchup Integration: For each predicted reliever, computes MOMO/MOMI against the lineup slots they'll likely face.