FEB 20 SLATE
9 gamesPLAYER STATS
Top 20 matchup spotlights ranked by MOJO + matchup advantage
PLAYER STAT LINES (PROJ. LINE)
Season averages adjusted for opponent defense + paceTOP 50 MOJO
League-wide player rankings by MOJOWOWY TRENDS
10-day trailing NRtg movers — WOWY impact (updated daily 8 AM)
MOJO RANGE MOVERS
Players most elevated or suppressed by team context
DUO TRENDS
Pair WOWY — 10-day window vs season baselineLINEUP TRENDS
Hot combos + fades with full player details
Pelle Larsson
🎯 Sharpshooter
58
Bam Adebayo
🏋️ Traditional Center
75
Andrew Wiggins
📐 Stretch Forward
63
Norman Powell
⚡ Scoring Guard
67
Davion Mitchell
🔄 Combo Guard
67
Miles Bridges
📐 Stretch Forward
59
LaMelo Ball
🎯 Playmaking Guard
71
Kon Knueppel
📐 Stretch Forward
68
Moussa Diabaté
🏋️ Traditional PF
68
Brandon Miller
⚡ Small-Ball 4
74
Evan Mobley
🏋️ Traditional Center
75
Jarrett Allen
🏰 Rim Protector
68
Donovan Mitchell
⚡ Scoring Guard
84
Darius Garland
🎯 Playmaking Guard
58
De'Andre Hunter
📐 Stretch Forward
52
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
⚡ Scoring Guard
95
Luguentz Dort
🔄 Combo Guard
65
Chet Holmgren
🏰 Rim Protector
88
Jalen Williams
🧠 Point Forward
76
Cason Wallace
🛡️ Defensive Specialist
76
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
⚡ Scoring Guard
95
Jaylin Williams
📐 Stretch Big
72
Alex Caruso
🛡️ Defensive Specialist
79
Dwight Powell
🏰 Rim Protector
60
Naji Marshall
📐 Stretch Forward
57
Caleb Martin
🔒 3-and-D Wing
47
Sam Merrill
🎯 Sharpshooter
65
Jaylon Tyson
📐 Stretch Forward
62
Donovan Mitchell
⚡ Scoring Guard
84
Chet Holmgren
🏰 Rim Protector
88
Aaron Wiggins
🛡️ Defensive Specialist
67
Ajay Mitchell
🛡️ Defensive Specialist
86
Alex Caruso
🛡️ Defensive Specialist
79
Isaiah Hartenstein
🏰 Rim Protector
81
Victor Wembanyama
🔮 Versatile Big
94
Dylan Harper
🛡️ Defensive Specialist
68
Alex Caruso
🛡️ Defensive Specialist
79
Ajay Mitchell
🛡️ Defensive Specialist
86
Derrick White
🛡️ Defensive Specialist
83
Hugo González
🦾 Two-Way Wing
66
Isaiah Collier
🎯 Playmaking Guard
47
Taylor Hendricks
🔒 3-and-D Wing
40
Cam Whitmore
🔒 3-and-D Wing
40
Bub Carrington
🧠 Floor General
41
Precious Achiuwa
💨 Athletic Wing
43
Domantas Sabonis
🏋️ Traditional Center
48
Precious Achiuwa
💨 Athletic Wing
43
DeMar DeRozan
📐 Stretch Forward
49
Domantas Sabonis
🏋️ Traditional Center
48
Gary Trent Jr.
⚔️ Slasher
40
Kevin Porter Jr.
🎯 Playmaking Guard
65
Kyle Kuzma
📐 Stretch Forward
49
Zach LaVine
🎯 Sharpshooter
47
DeMar DeRozan
📐 Stretch Forward
49
Drew Eubanks
🏋️ Traditional PF
40
Keyonte George
⚡ Scoring Guard
60
Cody Williams
🔒 3-and-D Wing
41
Svi Mykhailiuk
📐 Stretch Forward
47
Ace Bailey
🔒 3-and-D Wing
44
Jusuf Nurkić
🏋️ Traditional Center
53
Tyrese Maxey
⚡ Scoring Guard
76
Andre Drummond
🏰 Rim Protector
44
Paul George
📐 Stretch Forward
71
Dominick Barlow
🏋️ Traditional PF
54
VJ Edgecombe
🛡️ Defensive Specialist
64
Deandre Ayton
🏰 Rim Protector
55
Austin Reaves
⚡ Scoring Guard
72
LeBron James
🧠 Point Forward
66
Rui Hachimura
📐 Stretch Forward
52
Luka Dončić
🧠 Point Forward
79
Lineup quality rating (0–99):
• Player MOJO scores weighted by minutes
• Usage redistribution from DNP players
• Fatigue penalty for overplayed minutes
• Archetype decay for extra usage load
Lineup quality rating (0–99):
• Player MOJO scores weighted by minutes
• Usage redistribution from DNP players
• Fatigue penalty for overplayed minutes
• Archetype decay for extra usage load
HOW NBA SIM WORKS
NBA SIM is a data-driven prediction system that analyzes coaching schemes, player archetypes, and lineup synergy to predict game spreads and over/unders. All data sourced from 2025-26 NBA season statistics via the official NBA API.
MOJO (Morello's Optimized Joint Output) — 33 TO 99
Every player gets a MOJO score from 33-99 using a 75% offense / 25% defense split plus shared impact components, blended with team synergy context.
Defensive Rating (DRtg) matters: a player with 107 DRtg earns ~20 defensive points, while 112 DRtg earns only ~7.5. Elite defenders and rim protectors get a meaningful MOJO boost.
MOJO Range shows the expected floor-to-ceiling for each player based on their score volatility. Elite players (MOJO 83+) have tighter ranges, while mid-tier players have wider variance.
Team MOJO Ranking (1-30) is the minutes-weighted average MOJO score across each team's top 10 rotation players, weighted by minutes per game.
PLAYER ARCHETYPES
Players are clustered into archetypes using K-Means on 16 statistical features per position group. The optimal number of clusters (K) per position is chosen by silhouette score, with a minimum of 3 archetypes per position. Features include per-36 rates, efficiency metrics, and impact stats — weighted differently per position (e.g., assists weighted 1.5x for PGs, blocks 1.5x for centers).
COACHING SCHEMES
Each team's offensive and defensive schemes are classified from play type distributions, pace, and shooting profiles using percentile-rank comparison.
Offensive Schemes
Defensive Schemes
MOJI SPREAD MODEL — 10-STEP PIPELINE
The SIM runs a 10-step pipeline to produce projected spreads and totals for every game. Real lines from sportsbooks via RotoWire. Projected lines marked (PROJ.) where real data is unavailable.
Player props marked (PROJ. LINE) are season averages adjusted for opponent defense and pace. Real player props replace projections when released by sportsbooks.
LINEUP COMBINATION ANALYSIS
We track 2-man, 3-man, 4-man, and 5-man lineup combinations across the entire season. Each combo is evaluated by net rating, minutes played, and games played together. Minimum thresholds ensure statistical reliability:
Hot Combos show lineups with the best net ratings this season — these units are outscoring opponents significantly when they share the floor. Fade Combos are the worst-performing groups — teams bleed points when these players are together.
Trend badges (🔥 HEATING UP, ⚡ ELITE FLOOR, 💀 DISASTERCLASS, etc.) use game count and net rating thresholds to flag the most notable lineup trends across the league.
PROP SCORING
Player props are scored on a normalized 0-100 scale per prop type (PTS, AST, REB, PRA, STL+BLK). Each prop is adjusted by opponent defensive rating, pace matchup, and player efficiency (TS%). OVER props trigger for favorable matchups; UNDER props trigger when facing elite defense or when a player has poor efficiency (TS% below 53%).